The recent detection of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain has the potential to reshape portions of the global meat trade, according to Erin Borror, Vice President for Economic Analysis at the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Spain is one of the world’s leading players in pork production and exports, meaning any disruption could shift import demand toward other major suppliers—including the United States.
Borror emphasized Spain’s dominant role in the EU pork sector. “So Spain is a top global exporter of pork and they are also the largest producer of pork within the EU. The intra-EU trade continues and they have obviously regionalization and that trade is practically unimpacted.”
While internal EU trade remains stable, the bigger question lies in how non-EU markets respond. As Borror explained, “So what’s important is the third country trade and I think Spain is really a success story and something that the U.S. industry should aspire to. Only about a third of Spain’s exports to third country markets are fully suspended so that means the majority of their trading partners have accepted EU regionalization, at least the majority based on volumes.”
Still, several significant markets have suspended imports of Spanish pork, creating potential openings for U.S. exporters. “As we look at the big impacts, those countries that have suspended Spain’s pork. So their second largest destination after China is Japan and Japan is a full suspension. There should be some opportunities for U.S. pork into Japan, thinking mostly frozen loins.”
Beyond Japan, Southeast Asia may also present new possibilities. Borror noted, “For Malaysia, I am optimistic. Again, the potential for kind of a mix of cuts and just given the limited facilities eligible globally to supply that market, there should be some incremental business for the U.S.”
While Spain’s strong track record in managing disease outbreaks and maintaining trade partnerships will help limit the global shock, shifts in supply availability among key markets could benefit U.S. exporters in the short term. As global buyers adjust sourcing strategies, the U.S. pork industry may see expanded demand for specific cuts—especially in high-value markets that have temporarily halted Spanish imports.
Audio Reporting by Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.