Best Crop in Years for Corn and Soybeans

Big Crops Get Bigger: Grain Markets Under Pressure as Corn and Soybeans Reach Peak Conditions

The 2025 growing season continues to show strong yields, with corn and soybean crop conditions leading the conversation across the grain trade. As the markets keep a close eye on weather, yields, and export demand, the prevailing theme is clear: big crops get bigger—and that’s leaving little room for price excitement.

“Corn conditions still the best in nine years for early August. Soybeans the best in five years, although we know that August is soybean month.”

Despite optimal growing conditions, December corn futures are hovering near the $4.00 mark, with analysts watching closely to see if that level can hold. Meanwhile, November soybeans show continued weakness, setting new lows almost daily, despite solid condition ratings. The trade is cautious, knowing that August is critical for soybeans as pod-filling progresses.

In contrast, the spring wheat crop is facing more difficulty. Ratings are 20-25% lower than last year’s good to excellent categories, which may offer some support to the otherwise range-bound wheat trade.

“That could provide some support to otherwise range-bound wheat trade.”

In the livestock market, October live cattle dipping below $222 and October feeder cattle below $325 could attract buyers looking for value amid stable consumer demand.

U.S. Biofuel Policy and Trade Tensions Hit Agribusiness Hard

“Uncertainty surrounding U.S. biofuel policy and continued trade tensions push second quarter profits to multi-year lows for multiple crop trading companies, including ADM and Bunge.”

ADM reported its lowest second-quarter profit in five years, citing weakened margins in crop trading and processing due to ample crop supplies, sluggish sales, and biofuel policy uncertainty. The company also warned that full-year 2025 adjusted earnings may fall to $4.00 per share, the lowest since 2020.

Bunge, Cargill, and others in the ag sector are feeling similar pressure, with margin compression hurting profitability. Equipment manufacturers like AGCO Corporation and CNH Industrial are also bracing for the fallout, warning customers that increasing tariffs and trade tensions will lead to higher equipment prices by late 2025.

As commodity markets remain range-bound and input costs rise, grain producers and agribusinesses are facing a challenging second half of the year.

Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold and Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.