Red Meat and Poultry Production Forecast is Increased

Randall Weiseman Beef, Cattle, Dairy, Livestock, Pork, Poultry

raw meat-2This week USDA released their monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand report and in the livestock, poultry and dairy section, the 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production was increased from last month as higher fourth quarter beef and pork production forecasts more than offset reductions in broiler and turkey production. Beef production was increased on the pace of slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Pork production for 2016 was raised based on the current rate of slaughter. Broiler production is lowered based on September slaughter data. Turkey production was reduced based on the pace of slaughter.

For 2017, higher forecast beef production more than offsets lower pork and broiler production. Turkey production is unchanged. The increase in beef production reflects slaughter of cattle placed in late-2016 and early-2017 as well as slightly higher carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on slower expected gains in carcass weights. Broiler production for 2017 is lowered from last month on slower second-half growth. Table egg production is slightly reduced for both 2016 and 2017.

The beef import forecast in 2016 is lowered due to expected tightness in supplies from Oceania. Beef exports are expected to decline modestly in 2016 based on recent trade data. Beef imports and exports are unchanged for 2017. U.S. pork imports for 2016 and 2017 were lowered as increases in domestic pork production and lower prices are expected to limit demand for imports. Pork exports in 2016 are lowered from last month on recent trade data. Exports are raised in 2017 on lower hog prices which are expected to make U.S. product more competitive. Broiler exports are raised for 2016 and 2017 on strong demand in a number of countries.

In the dairy section, milk production forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were lowered from last month as recent data indicated that the U.S. cow inventory increased less rapidly than previously expected. However, output per cow is raised from last month.