According to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report from USDA, the Livestock, Poultry and Dairy section indicates the forecast for total red meat and poultry production in 2016 and 2017 is lowered from last month, largely as higher feed prices dampen the rate of production growth.
Beef production for 2016 is reduced mostly on lower carcass weights, but the pace of second-quarter slaughter is slightly slower than previously expected. Pork production for 2016 and 2017 is lowered as higher feed prices are expected to impact weights through early 2017. Broiler and turkey production for late-2016 and early-2017 is lowered as higher feed prices slow the expected rate of expansion. Egg production for 2016 is also reduced on expected weaker returns.
Milk production forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised from last month as recently reported cow numbers indicate the herd continues to expand. Cheese and butter prices for 2016 are forecast higher based on recent price data and lower forecast imports, despite relatively large stocks. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is raised based on recent price strength. The whey price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint.