Fall Pork Outlook: Tighter Supply, Competitive Prices, and Pork Month Demand
As the fall season approaches, the pork industry is bracing for tight supplies and shifting market dynamics. According to a new report from the National Pork Board, pork is expected to remain a price-competitive protein option for consumers, even as production lags behind expectations.
“A National Pork Board report expects pork to be even more price-competitive with beef and chicken during the fall.”
Industry analysts are keeping a close eye on slaughter numbers, weights, and export demand. The latest data reflects a noticeable shortfall in supply.
“The pork supply continues to fall short of expectations. In the last month, slaughter is down 3.3 percent, and when combined with the decline in weights, production has been down four percent.”
This reduced production is expected to impact pricing volatility, particularly around Labor Day weekend, a key retail window for meat sales.
“With Labor Day weekend, there will be some volatility in terms of pricing and supply. Hog slaughter is expected to quickly climb above 2.5 million head per week by mid-September. This will likely ease some of the tight supply.”
The anticipated increase in hog slaughter may offer some relief, but processing challenges could persist.
“Labor-to-bone product has been a concern and could become more of an issue as slaughter moves higher in the fall.”
On the pricing side, pork cuts are showing mixed trends. Ham prices are likely to remain strong due to limited availability among international buyers.
“Ham prices are expected to trade firmly as export buyers are short-bought. Bellies should also ease lower in September and October.”
Meanwhile, October Pork Month is expected to stimulate further consumer interest, particularly in popular cuts like ribs.
“October is Pork Month, and rib prices are already above last year’s.”
With pork maintaining its edge as an affordable protein and strong seasonal demand expected, fall 2025 presents both opportunities and supply-side challenges for the pork industry.