Red Meat and Poultry Production Forecast Raised

Randall Weiseman Beef, Cattle, Dairy, Livestock, Pork, Poultry

In USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, they note in the Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy section that the forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is raised from last month.

Beef production is forecast higher largely on the pace of slaughter in the second quarter, but also because feedlot marketing’s during the second half of the year are expected to remain relatively high.

Pork production for 2016 is also raised, based on second quarter slaughter and larger expected slaughter in the fourth quarter.
Broiler production for 2016 is raised on year-to-date production and hatchery data.

For 2017, pork production was reduced. In the June 24th Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, producers indicated intentions to have fewer sows farrow in the second half of 2016 compared to 2015. No change was made to the 2017 production forecasts for beef or poultry.

Both beef imports and exports are raised based on May trade data. Pork imports are lowered, but exports are raised. Broiler exports are raised slightly for 2016 and
2017, based on the recent reopening of South Korea to U.S. fresh and frozen poultry meat.

The milk production forecast for 2016 is lowered from last month as the pace of cow herd expansion has slowed. However, the production forecast for 2017 was raised as higher forecast milk prices and lower feed costs in late 2016 and early 2017 are expected to lead to higher 2017 cow numbers.