Incremental Cotton Demand Growth Could Deliver Big Gains for Producers
During the recent Deltapine New Product Evaluator (NPE) Summit in Hollywood, Florida, cotton producers heard a clear message about the future of the cotton market: incremental growth matters. Dr. Darren Hudson, Director of the International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness at Texas Tech University, shared an economic outlook that emphasized the long-term value of modest but consistent increases in cotton demand.
Dr. Hudson highlighted global mill use as a key area where even small improvements could significantly impact farm-level cotton prices. While cotton producers often hope for dramatic demand surges, Hudson stressed that steady, achievable growth may be far more realistic—and just as powerful over time.
“We’ve been flat in mill use for a long time and so just getting marginal increases, they don’t have to be huge, and what I showed on the graph was a one percent per year growth in mill use.”
According to Hudson, the cumulative effect of incremental demand growth can be substantial when viewed over a longer horizon.
“In a 10 year period, that’s 10 cents a pound and that makes a big difference.”
He explained that producers may not immediately feel the impact of higher mill use in the short term, but the long-term benefits add up quickly.
“Year one, probably not a lot, maybe half a cent to a cent, but that accumulated effect of that growth and that demand for cotton has a pretty drastic impact on net farm prices that they receive for export of cotton.”
With export markets playing a critical role in U.S. cotton demand, sustained improvements in mill use could strengthen price stability and profitability for growers. Hudson noted that while bold increases in global cotton consumption are appealing, they may not be necessary to improve market conditions.
“We like to swing for the fence and we’d love to see a 20 percent increase in mill use globally, but the reality is I think if we can target slow growth in mill use globally, that solves a lot of problems in terms of price.”
Hudson’s outlook resonated with producers navigating volatile markets, rising input costs, and global competition from synthetic fibers. His analysis suggests that industry-wide efforts focused on cotton promotion, innovation, and textile demand could yield meaningful returns even without dramatic shifts in consumption.
As cotton producers look toward future growing seasons, the message from the Deltapine NPE Summit was clear: consistent, incremental growth in global cotton mill use may be one of the most effective tools available to strengthen long-term price prospects and improve farm profitability.
Audio Reporting by Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.