Trade Agreement With China Seems A De-escalation

Arlan Suderman: Recent U.S.–China Deal Was “More of a De-Escalation Than an Agreement”

Arlan Suderman with Stonex recently wrote a commentary that has sparked discussion throughout agricultural and financial markets. His analysis raises doubts about the strength of the trade agreement announced between the United States and China in late October. According to Suderman, the event was not a breakthrough but rather a temporary cooling-off moment. He writes that “in his view the trade agreement with China in late October was more of a de-escalation than an actual trade agreement.”

Suderman notes that “yes, both sides agreed to various terms one could call an agreement,” but despite the announcement, little has materialized. As he points out, “three weeks later we’re still lacking specifics of the deal, that and in action from China actually making purchases.” His perspective reflects broader concerns in the agricultural sector, where farmers and commodity traders rely heavily on clear commitments and actual purchase follow-through.

One of the most significant issues leading up to the talks was whether the U.S. and China would even meet. “Suderman makes the point that there were considerable questions if both sides would even meet.” Tensions escalated when “China had halted exports of rare minerals and magnets, and President Trump quickly responded threatening an additional 100% tariff on all goods.” These rare earth materials are critical to numerous U.S. industries, making China’s move a powerful negotiating signal.

Given the charged environment, Suderman “sees the meeting and the verbiage of the trade agreement as nothing more than calming the waters at the time.” In other words, both nations may have been more interested in diffusing immediate tensions than reaching a substantive long-term pact.

Looking ahead, Suderman warns that China “still [is] playing the long game, knowing that President Trump’s administration ends in January 2029, and they might wait.” This long-term positioning suggests China may delay major commitments until it sees how U.S. policy evolves over the coming years.

For farmers, exporters, and global markets, Suderman’s interpretation underscores ongoing uncertainty. While the October announcement brought short-term relief, the absence of specifics and China’s strategic patience leave many questioning what the future of U.S.–China trade truly holds.

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Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.