USDA November Soybean Crop Report: Yield Declines, Export Cuts, and Rising Prices
The USDA has released its first soybean crop report since the government shutdown that began in September, and the November update brings several important insights for growers, marketers, and agriculture industry professionals. According to USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer, the latest data reflect meaningful shifts in yield expectations, production totals, and export projections that are already influencing U.S. soybean prices.
As Meyer explains, “The change in yields dropping at six-tenths of a bushel, maybe a little stronger than anticipated by the market. I think they were looking for something at between four-tenths and five-tenths, so a little bit bigger decline in that overall price.” This larger-than-expected drop in yields translates directly into reduced production.
Meyer continues, “We lost about 50 million bushels of production. So they’ve estimated that exports will actually be 50 million bushels lower.” USDA analysts are weighing several market forces to determine the revised export number, including global demand patterns, competing suppliers, and domestic pricing trends.
One significant factor is the recent rise in U.S. soybean prices, which Meyer notes has weakened U.S. competitiveness abroad. “And they’re looking at a combination of things in order to get to that export number. And then on top of that, you’ve seen our own domestic prices rise, making us somewhat less competitive into the global market. And so overall, you see kind of that loss of production come out of exports, but you have seen a price jump.”
With marketing pace also playing a role, Meyer highlights how much of the crop remains unsold. “And so normally by November 1st, we’re about 30 percent marketed on soybeans, so there was 70 percent left to be marketed. And so overall, we think that that turns into an overall average across all of that of 50 cents a bushel higher for soybeans.”
For producers navigating tight margins and volatile markets, the USDA’s November soybean crop report underscores the importance of staying informed about changing supply-and-demand fundamentals. Yield declines, reduced exports, and rising prices will continue shaping marketing decisions heading into the winter months.
Audio Reporting by Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.