USDA Crop Report Suspended, But Private Estimates Offer Insight on Corn and Soybeans
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Following the recent government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the suspension of its monthly crop report, a key source of market-moving data for farmers, analysts, and traders alike. However, despite the lack of official data, Bottom Line analysts have compiled their own report using private pre-report estimates from trusted sources.
“USDA announced last week, shortly after the government shutdown began, that they would be suspending monthly crop report. But Bottom Line analysts have been collecting pre-report private estimates, and we have our own crop update for you today.”
Several reputable firms have provided data to help bridge the gap left by the USDA’s absence.
“Three or four reliable private firms that we watch, and the trade watches, have released pre-report estimates as usual. Those estimates, on average, reflect about another bushel per acre reduction in the national corn yield, unchanged to slightly lower soybean number. On average, the national corn yield now 185 bushels per acre, and soybeans at 53.2.”
The corn outlook has slightly weakened, while soybean projections remain relatively stable. However, ending stocks remain a point of concern—especially with uncertainty surrounding exports and foreign demand.
“Looking at ending stocks numbers, a little harder to get accurate numbers in our view, but ending stocks, according to private estimates, 2.23 billion, suggesting USDA will not fully account for last week’s higher corn stocks figure. Soybean ending stocks, 299 million, in our view, totally ignores lost sales to China.”
The absence of official USDA data has raised concerns about market transparency, especially as global trade uncertainties continue.
Meanwhile, markets are watching commodities like gold amid economic volatility.
” Gold continues its nearly uninterrupted climb, new record at $4,000 an ounce.”
As the USDA remains offline, private crop data is now playing a crucial role in shaping expectations for U.S. grain markets heading into the final quarter of 2025.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.