Soybean Trade Hopes Rise Despite No Ag Mention in Trump-Xi Call
A recent phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi has reignited speculation in the grain markets — but notably, agriculture was left out of the discussion.
“President Trump made no mention of agriculture during a phone call on trade with Chinese President Xi last month.”
While wheat exports are the strongest in over 10 years and corn exports are on a record pace early in the marketing year, soybean exports continue to lag, mostly due to the absence of Chinese purchases.
“Wheat exports are the strongest in over 10 years, corn exports on a record pace early in this marketing year, yet soybeans lag far behind with the absence of China purchases.”
Still, there’s a flicker of hope for soybean producers. President Trump’s recent statements specifically targeting soybeans have some analysts hopeful that any trade progress with China could prioritize soybean deals.
“President Trump’s comments last week specifically targeting soybeans raises hope that any trade deal or any trade progress even would center on soybean purchases.”
Adding another layer of intrigue is the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has paused official USDA reporting. That gap in data may allow China to make soybean purchases “under the radar.”
“Now, Bottom Line analysts add that China could buy soybeans during this government shutdown go under the radar, as they say, with the absence of daily or weekly reporting. Analysts quickly add, though, the key word is they could.”
Meanwhile, the monthly USDA crop report scheduled for Thursday has been canceled, leaving grain markets dependent on private forecasts.
“With Thursday’s monthly crop report now canceled, grain trade must rely on updated private estimates.”
Those private estimates are tracking close to September’s official USDA numbers:
“So far, those private estimates are within a bushel of USDA September numbers, putting corn national yield 185.5 to 186.5, soybeans 53.2, 53.9.”
In uncertain times, the market is watching for any sign of renewed U.S.-China ag trade momentum.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.