Watching the Cattle Market

Cattle Futures Remain Strong Amid Tight Supply, Heifer Retention Trends

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures continue to hold strong as the market processes last week’s mostly neutral Cattle on Feed report, which, despite its tone, still reflects historically tight numbers in the U.S. cattle supply.

“Keeping an eye on live cattle and feeder cattle futures, especially after the neutral, mostly neutral cattle on feed report last week, but still historic numbers.”

Looking specifically at feeder cattle, the October contract has seen notable movement in September.

“Feeder cattle, the October contract made a low on the 12th of September around $344.90. Then it made a high September 16th, $356 and change. And it’s been trading in a range ever since there, including earlier this week.”

The Feeder Cattle Index, which spiked right after Labor Day to $367, has pulled back slightly but remains strong.

“Feeder index has pulled back since peaking $367. That was right after Labor Day. The index now currently stands around that $360 level.”

One of the most closely watched trends in the cattle market right now is heifer retention. As producers begin to hold back more replacement heifers, analysts expect to see even tighter supplies in the months ahead.

“And heifer retention is on everyone’s mind. We’re seeing more held back here when that really starts in earnest. Again, we’ll see a tighter supply for sure, and still producers aggressively buying cattle, but maybe a little bit pickier about the purchases that they make.”

Despite any pullbacks, the tone in the cattle market remains firm. Even with slight fluctuations in the futures contracts, demand remains high, and buying activity continues, albeit with more attention to value and quality.

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“This is the Bottom Line report. Major sports leagues have their well-known Hall of Fame, and so does agriculture.”

As producers and investors alike monitor the evolving cattle market, key indicators such as feeder cattle futures, live cattle trends, and heifer retention rates will continue to shape strategies heading into the fourth quarter of 2025.