USDA Lowers 2025-2026 Beef and Pork Production Forecasts, Raises Price Outlooks
The USDA has released its updated forecast for beef and pork production and pricing for 2025 and 2026, signaling a tightening in supply and continued upward pressure on prices. World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekinowski provided key insights into the changes impacting the U.S. meat sector.
“Our 2025 beef production forecast this month was lowered by 250 million pounds and into 2026 we lowered beef production there by 350 million pounds. That would be a 460 million pound reduction year over year in U.S. beef production.”
The ongoing decline in beef production is expected to keep beef prices elevated, driven by supply limitations and resilient consumer demand.
“Price strength is just reflecting tight supplies and continued strong demand, so these prices will remain high as long as that demand will continue to hold up.”
Turning to the pork sector, production is also forecast lower for both years, adjusted based on recent slaughter data and weights.
“Pork production we also lowered for both 2025 and 2026, mainly just truing up to recent data, 2025 both reduced slaughter and slightly lower weights as well.”
“Our 2025 pork production forecast we lowered by 290 million pounds and we carried that forward into 2026 with a 100 million pound reduction in pork production down to 28.4 billion pounds.”
Despite the adjustment, year-over-year pork production is still expected to grow modestly.
“Still year over year pork production expected to be up about 630 million pounds.”
As for hog prices, the USDA anticipates modest gains over the next two years due to strong market fundamentals.
“In terms of prices, hog price forecast we raised 75 cents per 100 weight for both 2025 and 2026.”
With reduced supply and steady or rising demand, the livestock sector is entering 2025 with expectations for firm meat prices and increased market attention on future production trends. Producers and market analysts alike will be closely watching consumer demand and feed costs as key variables going forward.
Audio Reporting by Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.