U.S. Wheat Exports Forecast to Surge in 2025–2026, Led by Hard Red Winter Wheat
The latest data from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service Export Sales Database shows a significant boost in U.S. wheat exports for the 2025–2026 marketing year, offering a positive outlook for American wheat producers and exporters.
“U.S. wheat exports for 2025–2026 are forecast to increase by 25 million bushels this month, the highest since 2020–2021, based on a strong pace of export sales and competitive pricing.”
The surge is largely attributed to Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW), which has seen the most notable increase in commitments.
“Hard Red Winter Wheat exports are forecast to rise by 300 million bushels, with total commitments almost double from a year ago.”
This exceptional growth reflects the global competitiveness of U.S. wheat pricing, especially compared to other major exporters. HRW wheat has expanded its footprint in several international markets.
“With competitive pricing compared to other exporters, HRW sales have expanded to a wide variety of markets, most notably to Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, and Bangladesh.”
While Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) and Durum exports are also showing promise:
“Export sales of Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) and Durum are running slightly ahead of last year, and total exports of those classes are forecast to increase during the marketing year.”
There are some areas of concern. Hard Red Spring (HRS) and White Wheat are not performing as well in the current market.
“Conversely, sales of Hard Red Spring (HRS) and White currently lag behind last year’s pace and are forecast to be lower year to year.”
Overall, the outlook remains strong for total U.S. wheat production.
“Total 2025–2026 wheat production is forecast at 1.927 billion bushels.”
With growing international demand and favorable pricing, the U.S. wheat export market is poised for a rebound, signaling opportunity for grain producers and exporters nationwide.