A new Q4 2024 pork report from Rabobank says improved profitability is slowing herd contractions in most regions. However, producers are taking a cautious approach to expansion. Disease pressure in parts of Europe, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are slowing production growth, as are U.S. slaughter constraints and EU regulatory headwinds.
Questions around consumer sentiment and pork demand are also weighing on expansion decisions. Political challenges are also heating up and creating a tenuous trade environment. Changes in the Mexican and Japanese administrations, a U.S. election, and the trend toward regionalized trade could create a less supportive trade environment for pork in 2025. China’s anti-dumping case against the EU also highlights the industry’s need to remain nimble.
Recent labor and weather-related logistical challenges only compound trade uncertainty. While global feed levels are better than in past years, dry weather in South America and Asia may limit production in those areas.
(From the National Association of Farm Broadcasters)