A new economic study warns that a renewed trade war between the U.S. and China could severely harm American farmers while benefiting Brazil and Argentina. The study, conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, was commissioned by the American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). It highlights the risks of imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods.
The report predicts that if China reinstates tariffs from previous trade disputes, U.S. soybean exports could drop by 51.8%, losing up to 16 million metric tons annually. U.S. corn exports would also fall by 84.3%, making it hard for farmers to find alternative markets. Meanwhile, Brazil and Argentina would likely fill the gap, gaining market share that may be impossible for American producers to reclaim.
ASA and NCGA leaders caution against launching a new trade war, saying it could deepen financial challenges for U.S. farmers. “Tariffs can cause unintended consequences,” said NCGA’s Krista Swanson, emphasizing the importance of thoughtful trade policies.