Brazil’s Orange Forecast: Less Fruit, More Drop

Dan Citrus, Crop Forecasts


The 2020–21 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in Brazil is 269.36 million boxes. The updated forecast was published Dec. 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The decrease of 17.36 million boxes represents a 6 percent decline in crop size from the September forecast update.

Expected production was significantly hindered by late rainfall in the spring and intense heat. Should this new projection hold true until harvest ends, it will result in the largest crop loss for Brazil’s citrus belt since the beginning of the historical series in 1988–89 and a decline of 30.36 percent in comparison to the previous crop season.


A poor outlook for rainfall was expected in 2020 due to the possibility of the climate event La Niña forming, which was officially confirmed in September. However, other phenomena, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, simultaneously contributed to less rainfall and increased temperatures that reached unprecedented levels in several regions of the citrus belt. Consequently, the effects on groves resulting from adverse weather conditions this year were much worse as compared to those observed during the last La Niña, between November 2017 and April 2018.

Monthly maximum average temperatures in the …..

Read more about Brazil’s Orange Forecast: Less Fruit, More Drop on the Citrus Industry website.