The U.S. Department of Agriculture will host its 102nd Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum this Thursday and Friday in Washington, D.C.. The annual event is one of the most closely watched gatherings for producers, traders, and agribusiness leaders, offering fresh USDA price projections, yield forecasts, and long-term agricultural baseline data.
This year’s forum marks the first appearance for USDA’s new Chief Economist, Justin Benavidez. Market participants will be listening closely for his perspective on supply and demand trends, commodity markets, and the broader farm economy outlook.
Over the two-day event, USDA will release a wide range of data, including its closely followed 10-year baseline projection covering major crops, livestock, trade, and farm income expectations. While those long-term projections shape policy discussions and risk management strategies, analysts say the trade will be focused on more immediate figures.
According to Bottom Line analysts, the most important numbers to watch at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum are trendline yields and price projections for the 2026 growing season. These early estimates often set the tone for futures markets and influence planting decisions across the country. Traders and producers alike will analyze how USDA’s assumptions compare to current private estimates.
The market also expects USDA to carry these same trendline yield and price assumptions into its official 2026–27 balance sheet, which will be released in May. That report will provide the first detailed look at supply and demand fundamentals for the new crop year, making this week’s forum a critical preview.
Historically, USDA has taken a conservative approach when releasing initial projections. Analysts anticipate that the agency’s opening numbers may come in below some current private forecasts, particularly if USDA builds in cautious yield assumptions or modest price expectations.
As always, even small adjustments in trendline yields or projected prices can significantly shift ending stocks estimates and market sentiment. With volatility still present in global commodity markets, this year’s USDA Outlook Forum could play a pivotal role in shaping the 2026 crop market outlook.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.