USDA Releases January 2026 Beef and Cattle Price and Production Outlook
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released its Beef and Cattle Price and Production Outlook for January 2026, offering updated projections that reflect ongoing tight cattle supplies and continued strength in cattle prices. World Agricultural Outlook Board Chairman Mark Jekanowski outlined the latest adjustments, highlighting the impact of heavier carcass weights even as placements remain constrained.
For 2025, USDA revised beef production expectations higher, largely due to cattle weights continuing to exceed earlier assumptions. According to Jekanowski, these heavier weights have played a key role in offsetting reduced placements, a trend expected to extend into the current calendar year.
“For 2025, we raised our beef production forecast by 50 million pounds, just reflecting continued higher cattle weights, which are more than offsetting lower placements, and we expect those higher weights to carry into the current calendar year into 2026, more than offsetting lower placements this year, tighter supplies.”
Looking ahead to 2026, USDA also made a modest upward adjustment to beef production, while emphasizing that overall supplies remain historically tight. Despite the increase, production is still projected to decline on a year-over-year basis, which continues to lend support to the cattle market.
“And with that, for 2026, we raised our beef production forecast by 10 million pounds. But still, it’s tight supplies that are kind of dominating the market. Beef production expected to be down 260 million pounds, which is providing some support.”
Price expectations reflect these supply dynamics. USDA increased its 2026 cattle price forecast, pointing to strong fundamentals and limited available cattle throughout the year. The outlook suggests that producers may continue to see favorable pricing conditions despite broader economic uncertainties.
“Cattle and beef prices. We raised our steer price forecast for 2026 by 75 cents per hundredweight. Now at $235.75 per hundredweight, that would be up $11.38 from last year, from 2025, and we’re expecting that price strength to continue throughout the year.”
Overall, the January 2026 outlook reinforces a familiar theme in the cattle market: tight supplies, resilient demand, and price strength driven by limited inventories. While slightly higher beef production offers some balance, supply constraints are expected to remain the dominant factor shaping cattle and beef markets in the year ahead.
Audio Reporting by Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.