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This afternoon’s monthly cattle on feed report, combined with bitter cold temperatures and a major winter storm stretching across much of the southern United States, could be the catalyst needed to push feeder cattle and live cattle futures out of their recent trading ranges.
Live cattle futures have remained rangebound in recent sessions. February live cattle continue to encounter resistance on the top side near the 236–237 level, while downside support has been well established around 228–229. Market participants are watching closely to see whether today’s report provides enough fundamental direction to spark a breakout in either direction.
Feeder cattle futures are showing a similar technical pattern. March feeder cattle have struggled to break above resistance near 365, but downside support around 353–354 has held firm. This narrow range suggests the market is waiting for fresh information, and the cattle on feed report may serve as that trigger.
Analysts heading into the report are expecting tighter supply signals. The on-feed number is projected to be down 2–3%, while placements are anticipated to decline by 6–7%. If realized, these figures would reinforce the idea of reduced feeder cattle availability moving forward, a supportive factor for both feeder and live cattle prices.
Adding to the market’s complexity is a significant winter storm impacting livestock regions across the South. The system is forecast to stretch from New Mexico through Texas and eastward to the Carolinas, bringing bitter cold temperatures, snow, ice, and transportation disruptions. Severe winter weather can slow cattle movement, affect feed intake, and create short-term supply bottlenecks, all of which tend to add volatility to cattle futures.
While the cattle on feed report is the primary scheduled event traders are focused on, the storm’s real-time effects could overshadow the data in the near term. Weather-driven disruptions often amplify market reactions, especially when futures are already coiled within tight technical ranges.
Taken together, today’s report and the widespread winter storm may finally provide the momentum needed for cattle markets to expand beyond recent boundaries. Traders and producers alike will be watching closely to see whether fundamentals and weather align to drive the next move in live and feeder cattle futures.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.