Holiday-Shortened Trading Week Puts Live and Feeder Cattle Highs to the Test
This was already a holiday-shortened trading week, and with only two more days of trade after today, market participants are closely watching whether recent highs in the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are now in place. In our view, the next couple of sessions could be critical in determining whether the market has peaked, at least in the near term.
Attention remains focused on February live cattle, where 236.27 marked a high last week. That level is now serving as a key reference point for traders evaluating upside momentum. Failure to revisit or exceed that price could suggest that buying interest is beginning to slow after a strong rally.
At the same time, the March feeder cattle contract is under similar scrutiny. The market posted a high near 365 last week, a price level that may prove difficult to regain if momentum fades. Given recent volatility and tightening margins, many traders are questioning whether those highs will be seen again anytime soon.
That naturally leads to the question many in the cattle industry are asking: Where is a safe level? To answer that, some are looking back to longer-term benchmarks that seemed unthinkable just weeks ago.
The 52-week low for February live cattle sits at 189.95, established on March 3 of last year. For feeder cattle, the 52-week low in the March contract is 264.10, recorded in early April of last year. Those levels now stand in sharp contrast to today’s market, but they serve as a reminder of how quickly sentiment and pricing can shift.
Just a month ago, numbers like those appeared completely out of reach as the cattle complex surged on tight supplies, strong cash trade, and solid demand. However, with markets now questioning sustainability at elevated price levels, those historical lows are back on the radar—not as immediate targets, but as reference points in assessing downside risk.
As this shortened trading week wraps up, the next two sessions may offer important clues. Whether the market holds near recent highs or begins to retrace will likely shape trader confidence and direction heading into the weeks ahead. For producers, feeders, and hedgers alike, this remains a pivotal moment in the cattle market.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.