Holiday Trading Slows as Soybean Market Faces Ongoing Pressure
Active trading days are becoming fewer and fewer as the holiday season approaches. With Christmas falling on Thursday and the New Year’s holiday following shortly after, market activity is beginning to thin. Many traders have already evened up their accounts and are effectively stepping back for the final weeks of the year, treating the period as a working vacation while keeping a close eye on market-moving developments.
This seasonal slowdown often reduces volume and volatility, but underlying fundamentals still matter—especially in the soybean market. As attention turns to global demand, concerns continue to build around China’s pace of soybean purchases and its impact on U.S. prices.
We continue to keep a close watch on the soybean trade. Of course, China has been very slow in fulfilling the 12 million ton soybean commitment. They were supposed to have that done by next week and then the end of January. Then Treasury Secretary Besant targeted the end of February.
As has been noted in recent weeks, the timeline for those purchases appears to be slipping further and further out. According to the U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer, that timeline could extend well beyond earlier expectations.
As mentioned last week, it seems like the timeline, according to the U.S. Trade Rep. Jamison Greer, that could end up being the end of the growing season next year into August, September, even to October.
That uncertainty is not providing much support to soybean prices. Delayed export commitments often weigh on market sentiment, especially during a time of year when traders are already less active and less inclined to take on new risk. With many participants stepping away for the holidays, the lack of clarity surrounding Chinese demand only adds to the cautious tone in the market.
Seasonally, the final two weeks of the year are known for lighter trade, limited fresh news, and choppy price action. However, unresolved export issues can still shape expectations for the months ahead, particularly as producers look toward spring planting decisions and longer-term demand outlooks.
At this point, the delayed soybean commitment remains a key headwind. With timelines stretching potentially into late summer or early fall of next year, the situation is once again “not helping the soybean trade.”
As markets head into a shortened holiday trading schedule with lingering questions and fewer clear answers.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.