USDA Updates Peanut Production Forecast as Markets Watch Supply and Demand
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has released another forecast for peanut production from the most recent crop year. While expectations remain largely unchanged for now, industry observers believe adjustments may be coming as final numbers continue to take shape.
USDA did not lower its production estimate in the latest report, even as peanuts are still being counted. So far, approximately 3.5 million tons of peanuts have been delivered and placed in storage, compared to the USDA estimate of 3.7 million tons. With deliveries currently running below projections, many in the industry expect USDA to revise production numbers downward in next month’s report.
Beyond production, USDA also provided updated insight into peanut usage trends. Food use of peanuts is forecast to grow by 1% in the coming year, supported largely by continued strength in peanut butter consumption. Peanut butter continues to trend upward as consumers increasingly recognize it as a low-cost, high-protein food option, especially during times of economic pressure.
While peanut butter demand remains strong, other peanut-based products are showing mixed results. Peanut candy and snack consumption has remained relatively static over the past decade. USDA notes that peanut snack consumption is increasing, but peanut candy use has declined. One contributing factor to lower peanut candy demand is the rise in cocoa prices, which has increased production costs for candy manufacturers and reduced overall usage. This is a trend the industry will need to monitor moving forward, as confectionery demand has historically been an important outlet for peanuts.
On the export side, USDA’s peanut export forecast remains unchanged from last month at 1.5 billion pounds. However, market signals suggest export activity may be slowing. While official projections have not yet been adjusted, industry feedback indicates softer demand in key international markets.
Exports to the European Union appear to be easing, with shipping activity slowing in recent months. Tariffs could also pose a challenge moving forward, adding another layer of uncertainty to the export outlook. If trade barriers increase or persist, they could further pressure U.S. peanut exports in the months ahead.
Overall, the peanut market continues to balance slightly weaker production indicators with steady domestic food demand and a more cautious export outlook. As USDA updates future reports, producers and industry stakeholders will be watching closely for revisions that could shape prices and marketing decisions.
Audio Reporting by Tyron Spearman for Southeast AgNet.