Traders Anticipate Market Shifts Ahead of November USDA Crop Report
After a two-month data gap, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is set to release its long-awaited crop report, which could bring significant movement to the grain markets. The last official supply and demand report was issued on September 12, leaving traders, exporters, and producers without updated figures during the government shutdown.
While private data and state-level reports have been available, tomorrow’s comprehensive national report will finally put “everyone on the same page,” potentially setting the stage for some volatile market action as trading closes tomorrow afternoon.
Analysts say the new report could bring adjustments across key crops, particularly corn and soybeans, two of the most closely watched commodities in the market.
“Tomorrow’s crop report could make for some interesting twists in the trade after two months of no data. It’s been since September 12th that traders, exporters, producers, and others have had updated supply-demand data. Private data has been available all along during the shutdown, along with weekly individual state reports, but putting everyone on the same page could cause for interesting close tomorrow afternoon.”
For corn, expectations are leaning toward a slight decrease in national yields, possibly tightening supplies.
“Looking at the corn number, national corn yield 184.5 to 185.5 in our view, down some from September. Bottom Line analysts also remind listeners that USDA has to add 207 million bushels of corn to ending stocks, corn that was found in the quarterly stocks report.”
Meanwhile, soybean yields are expected to hold relatively steady, though slightly lower than September projections.
“We look for a little change in the soybean national yield, but it should be below 53.5.”
With new USDA data poised to reset the market narrative, analysts suggest that price volatility could increase in the short term as traders digest updated yield estimates, ending stocks, and supply-demand adjustments.
As the industry waits for the official release, all eyes will be on how the November crop report reshapes sentiment for both corn and soybeans heading into the final weeks of harvest.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.