Climate Prediction Center: 70% Chance of La Niña Through January
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports a 70% probability of a La Niña weather pattern developing and continuing through December into January. Historically, La Niña has been associated with colder, snowier winters across the northern U.S. and cooler, drier conditions in the southern regions, including parts of the Southwest and Southeast.
Meteorologists explain that during a La Niña phase, trade winds strengthen and move more quickly across the equator, creating a looping pattern in the jet stream. When that loop dips southward, it allows cold Arctic air to move deeper into the continental U.S., producing more frequent cold snaps and winter storms in northern states.
La Niña’s Expected Impacts
The CPC notes that the current La Niña would mark the fifth occurrence in the past six winters, although this one is expected to be short-lived, likely peaking near or just after Christmas.
Key regional impacts include:
- North of I-70: Higher likelihood of colder and snowier weather, especially in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
- Southwest and Southeast: Cooler, drier patterns are expected, which could prolong existing drought conditions.
- Delta and Southeast states: Lingering drought remains a concern, potentially affecting winter crop moisture and spring planting conditions.
Meteorologists emphasize that even a short La Niña event can influence energy demand, agricultural planning, and commodity markets, as weather-driven volatility plays a key role in seasonal forecasts.
Market Implications: Fed Rate Cut Already Priced In
Turning to the financial world, Wall Street analysts say that markets have already priced in an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board. The rate decision, anticipated in upcoming meetings, is seen as part of the Fed’s effort to maintain economic momentum amid changing inflation and global market dynamics.
“We don’t see the Fed disappointing,” analysts noted, suggesting that investors remain confident in the Fed’s direction as the year closes out.
Bottom Line
With La Niña expected to shape weather patterns into early 2026 and the Federal Reserve poised to adjust monetary policy, both the agricultural and financial sectors are preparing for an active winter season. For farmers, energy markets, and investors alike, weather and policy will be key themes driving decisions in the months ahead.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.