CME FedWatch Shows 99% Chance of October Fed Rate Cut as Jobs Data Remains Missing

With no recent jobs data released and several key economic reports delayed, market expectations are signaling near certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting.
“The lack of recent jobs data not being released, or other economic reports, has the CME FedWatch showing a 99% chance another rate cut is coming at the Fed meeting.”
The monthly jobs report, a critical indicator for Federal Reserve policy decisions, was not issued last week due to ongoing disruptions.
“The government missed, of course, issuing the monthly jobs report last week, a report the Federal Reserve Board watches very closely.”
In addition to the monthly numbers, weekly jobless claims—another closely monitored labor market indicator—have also not been released.
“Weekly jobless claims are also important, not being released.”
Analysts expect that once the reports resume, the data will reflect continued economic strain, especially among former federal employees.
“We think once they start up again, they’ll reflect large numbers of Federal civilian employees who took the buyout option earlier this year and still not finding employment, plus those permanently cut from the government workforce this past week.”
Taken together, the missing reports and labor market instability support the CME’s rate forecast:
“All this points to a 99% chance the Fed will cut rates October 29.”
Looking further ahead, the Fed is not scheduled to meet in November, but expectations are already building for another cut before year’s end.
“Now they don’t meet in November, CME FedWatch already showing 87% chance another rate cut at the December 10 meeting.”
Outside of interest rate concerns, market watchers are also keeping tabs on livestock trends.
“This is the Bottom Line report. Keeping an eye on declining open interest in cattle and feeder cattle, now the lowest since early in May.”
With economic signals flashing caution, all eyes are on the Fed and upcoming reports that could shape monetary policy through the end of 2025.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.