U.S. Cattle on Feed Inventory Expected to Hit Lowest Levels Since 2017
Pre-release estimates suggest a significant drop in U.S. cattle on feed inventories, potentially reaching the lowest level since 2017. According to analysts, the average estimate shows total cattle on feed down 2% from the same time last year.
This expected decline continues a seasonal trend typically seen during the summer months. “Seasonally, August feedlot inventories are the lowest of the year. Marketings tend to outpace placements in late spring to summer. And that’s been the case this year.”
July marketing numbers are also down, continuing the broader slowdown. “Marketings during July down 6%. But as usual, it’s the placement figure that can move the market. Average July placements into the feedlot expected down 8% to 9%. But range of estimates down 6% to down 13%.”
The most telling statistic may be the difference between marketing and placement figures this summer. “Cattle marketings in June exceeded placements by 178,000 head, expected to exceed July placements by over 215,000.”
These shifts in cattle numbers will be closely watched when the USDA releases the official Cattle on Feed report, as these supply dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping cattle prices moving into the fall and winter marketing seasons.
“This is the bottom line report. Pro better each day as they cross the country and the Midwest, we see that their numbers are likely going to align with USDA when they’re released.”
Tighter inventories suggest firmer price support in the near term, particularly for feeders and finished cattle. As placements continue to lag behind marketings, feedlot supplies are expected to remain constrained—potentially setting the stage for stronger demand later in the year.
Audio Reporting by Mark Oppold for Southeast AgNet.