USDA Forecasts Higher Milk Production for 2025 and 2026

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest projections for milk production in 2025 and 2026, signaling continued growth in the U.S. dairy industry. According to World Agricultural Outlook Board Chairman Mark Jekanowski, updated milk production reports and key economic factors have driven the USDA to raise both near- and long-term forecasts.
“U.S. milk production overall continues to grow.
We raised our production forecast for both 2025 and 2026 based on recent data from milk production reports showing higher cow numbers and we also raised milk production per cow as well for both 2025 and 2026. Those changes translate into about a 900 million pound increase in production for 2025 and a 1.3 billion pound increase in milk production for 2026. Those are just the changes we made this year.”
The USDA’s revised milk production forecast suggests that total U.S. milk output will hit 230.4 billion pounds by 2026, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.2 billion pounds year over year. These projections highlight the sector’s resilience and adaptability in the face of fluctuating market conditions.
“Year over year, 2026 milk production would be up about 1.2 billion pounds at 230.4 billion pounds next year. Lower feed costs are also anticipated to support a higher output per cow.”
Lower feed costs are a key driver in this growth, allowing dairy producers to maintain larger herds and support greater productivity per cow. This combination of factors has resulted in a strong upward revision in milk supply forecasts—an encouraging sign for the broader dairy market.
These latest figures are critical for milk processors, co-ops, dairy farmers, and commodity traders who closely watch USDA data to make informed production and investment decisions. With higher production on the horizon, the industry is preparing to meet both domestic and international dairy demand in the coming years.
Audio Reporting by Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.