USDA Forecasts Record Corn Crop, Lower Prices, and Back-to-Back Export Records
A record-setting U.S. corn crop is projected for the upcoming year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), signaling major implications for prices, exports, and acreage outlooks. The August forecast marks a pivotal moment, as it introduces the season’s first survey-based production and yield estimates.
USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer highlighted the economic impact of the expected surplus.
“A lot of extra corn, putting some downward pressure on prices, and making a downward adjustment of $0.30 to $3.90 for the 25-26 marketing year price.”
This notable price shift reflects the size of the anticipated harvest and how it will affect both domestic markets and international trade. Meyer emphasized the role of exports in balancing the supply-heavy outlook.
“Exports up another $200,000, so you’re talking about a 2.875 billion bushel export forecast for 25-26, which would be a record over the now adjusted up number for 24-25, which would have been the previous record. We’re talking about two back-to-back expected records for corn exports. And we did raise corn exports for the 24-25 crop year again, because of continued strength of export sales.”
The August USDA report also reflects a deeper methodology shift in how projections are determined, now incorporating both survey data and satellite-based observations.
“For the report, this is where we get the first survey-based yield and production numbers for corn and soybeans. Again, in August, it’s a farmer-based survey. But this is the second year where NASA’s pulled forward and looked and used FSA data in order to adjust acreage.”
The dual-source approach offers a clearer picture of U.S. acreage and productivity.
“So I think when we talk about balance sheet changes, we’ve got to keep in mind that we’re getting both the first survey-based yield information along with the first assessment of FSA acreage for corn and beans as well, too.”
As global demand holds strong and U.S. corn supply expands, the USDA’s forecast paints a dynamic picture for 2025–26—with lower prices offset by record-setting exports and data-backed production estimates.
Audio Reporting by Dale Sandlin for Southeast AgNet.