The U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit an all-time high in the first half of 2025, marking a significant and historic shift in America’s farm export dominance. For decades, the U.S. agricultural sector maintained a strong global position, consistently posting trade surpluses. But new data show that trend has reversed sharply in recent years.
According to Bloomberg, “that only highlights American farmers’ longtime dominant role in world exports, which is hurt by President Donald Trump’s trade wars.” The agricultural export value in June 2025 trailed import value by $4.1 billion, a gap that is 14 percent larger than the same time last year. This pushed the total agricultural trade deficit to $28.6 billion through the first half of the year.
The shift from surplus to deficit has been gradual but steady, with roots tracing back to Trump’s first term in office. During the height of the U.S.-China trade war, retaliatory tariffs and lost market access began eroding America’s competitive edge in global agricultural trade.
“Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed the U.S. exported only $5.5 billion worth of farm goods to China during the first six months of the year, compared to $11.8 billion at the same point last year.” This represents more than a 50% drop in U.S. agricultural exports to China, a critical market for American farmers.
The implications of this record deficit are far-reaching. While U.S. farm exports still play a crucial role in feeding the world, reduced access to key markets—particularly China—is hampering growth. This trend raises concerns for commodity prices, rural economies, and long-term global competitiveness.
The ongoing decline in U.S. agricultural exports and rise in agricultural imports presents new challenges for policy makers and farm organizations alike. With international competitors gaining ground, restoring balance may require trade renegotiations, expanded market access, and targeted support for export-driven sectors.
The 2025 U.S. farm trade deficit underscores the lasting impact of past trade disputes and highlights the urgency of reshaping American agricultural trade policy for the future.