Farmer sentiment dropped during March as concerns over agricultural trade and farm policy weighed on producers’ outlook for the future.
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 12 points to 140, down from 152 in February. The Index saw a 15-point drop in the Index of Future Expectations to 144, and the Current Conditions Index fell five points to 132. The drop was influenced by falling crop prices since mid-February, along with the increasing uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and farm policy.
The Farm Capital Investment Index fell five points to 54 in March. Despite the dip, that’s the second-highest reading since June 2021. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained steady at 118 in March, only six points lower than in March 2024. The Farm Financial Performance Index also dropped eight points to 102.
The Index indicates that producers still anticipate better financial performance this year than in 2024.
(From the National Association of Farm Broadcasters)
Producer Sentiment Slips Due to Rising Policy Uncertainty
Michael Langemeier and James Mintert, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Weaker expectations for the future led to a decline in farmer sentiment in March as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index fell 12 points to a reading of 140, down from 152 a month earlier. Farmers’ view of the future was decidedly less optimistic in March than in February, as the Index of Future Expectations dipped to 144, which was 15 points lower than in February. A weaker Current Conditions Index, which dropped 5 points in March to 132, also contributed to the weakening in farmer sentiment. Falloffs in key crop prices since mid-February, combined with concerns about the future of agricultural trade and farm policy, were important factors behind the sentiment shift. Even with the decline in expectations for the future, farmers were still more optimistic about the future than the current situation, as the Future Expectations Index remained 12 points higher than the Current Conditions Index. The March barometer survey took place from March 10-14, 2025.
Coinciding with the weakness in farmer sentiment, the Farm Capital Investment Index declined 5 points in March to 54. Despite this month’s dip, March’s investment index was still the second-highest reading recorded since June 2021. The Farm Financial Performance Index also fell in March, dropping 8 points to 102. At a measurement of just above 100, the performance index suggests producers, on average, still expect their farm’s financial performance to slightly exceed the level from a year ago. The financial performance outlook was likely buttressed by expectations for strong financial performance among livestock operations, which helped offset weaker expectations for many crop farms.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, at a reading of 118 in March, was unchanged from a month earlier and just 6 points lower than a year ago. Except for late summer and early fall 2024, when pessimism reigned, the farmland index has …..