U.S. farmers retained their post-election optimistic outlook at the start of 2025 as the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose five points above December to 141. The barometer’s rise was primarily attributed to a nine-point rise in the Current Conditions Index. The Index of Future Expectations rose only three points in comparison.
Compared to previous surveys, fewer producers in January pointed to lower crop and livestock prices as a top concern, which helped explain why producers felt better about the current situation. The shift in attitudes was attributable in part to an improvement in crop prices between December and January.
Farmers remain more optimistic about the future than the current situation, as the Future Expectations Index was still 47 points above the Current Conditions Index. The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 14 points in January, a sign that producers expect this year to be better than 2024.
(From the National Association of Farm Broadcasters)
U.S. Farmers’ Retain Optimistic Outlook for 2025 Despite Ag Trade Uncertainty
February 4, 2025
James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
U.S. farmers retained their post-election optimistic outlook at the start of the new year as the January Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose 5 points above a month earlier to a reading of 141. The barometer’s rise was primarily attributable to a 9-point rise in the Current Conditions Index, while the Future Expectations Index rose just 3 points. Compared to recent surveys, fewer producers this month pointed to lower crop and livestock prices as a top concern, which helped explain why producers felt better about the current situation. The shift in attitudes was attributable in part to an improvement in crop prices from the time of the December to the January survey. For example, Eastern Corn Belt prices for near-term delivery of corn and soybeans rose 9% and 5%, respectively, from early December to mid-January. Although producers’ appraisal of the current situation improved in January, U.S. farmers remain markedly more optimistic about the future than the current situation, as the Future Expectations Index this month was still 47 points above the Current Conditions Index. The January barometer survey took place from January 13-17, 2025.
The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 13 points in January, mirroring the rise in the Current Conditions Index. The increase in the financial performance index signals that, on average, producers expect 2025 to be a better year than 2024. The Farm Capital Investment Index, at a reading of 48 in January, was unchanged compared to a month earlier. The investment index continues to be notably stronger than last summer when it dipped to a low of 31, with this month’s index the second-highest reading of the last three years. Optimistic expectations for the future appear to be ….. Read the full report.