October (.pdf) provided a surprising pre-election bounce in farmer sentiment as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed to 115, 27 points above the September index.
The biggest driver of the sentiment improvement was an increase in producers’ confidence in the future. The Future Expectations Index jumped 30 points to 124. The Current Conditions Index also rose in October but by a smaller amount. With a reading of 95, the Current Conditions Index confirmed that farmers think economic conditions this year are worse than last year and the lowest since 2015-2016, which were the early days of a multi-year downturn in the farm economy.
Producers expressed some optimism that economic conditions will improve and not precipitate an extended downturn in the farm economy. For example, the percentage of producers who expect bad times in the upcoming year dropped from 73 percent in September to 53 percent in October.
(From the National Association of Farm Broadcasters)
Farmer Sentiment in October Rebounded Ahead of the U.S. Election
November 5, 2024
James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
October provided a surprising pre-election bounce in farmer sentiment as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index climbed to 115, 27 points higher than in September. The biggest driver of the sentiment improvement was an increase in producers’ confidence in the future, as the Future Expectations Index jumped 30 points to 124. The Current Conditions Index also rose in October but by a smaller amount. With a reading of 95, the Current Conditions Index confirmed that farmers think economic conditions this year are worse than last year and weaker than during the barometer’s base period of 2015-2016, which was in the early days of a multi-year downturn in the U.S. farm economy. Producers this month expressed some optimism that economic conditions will improve and not precipitate an extended downturn in the farm economy. The October barometer survey took place from October 14-18, 2024.
Figure 1. Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-October 2024.
Figure 2. Indices of Current Conditions and Future Expectations, October 2015-October 2024.
The overall improvement in farmer sentiment is better understood by examining responses to the individual questions used to generate the barometer. Much of the sentiment improvement was attributable to producers possessing a less pessimistic view of the U.S. agricultural economy. For example, the percentage of producers who expect bad times for the U.S. agricultural economy in the upcoming year declined from 73% of respondents in September to 53% in October. Similarly, the percentage of producers who expect bad times for U.S. agriculture in the next 5 years fell from 48% to 33%. Looking at a related question, fewer producers this month said they expect their farm’s financial condition to worsen over the next …..(Read the full report below).