Florida orange and red grapefruit production, already at historically low levels, will likely decline for years, according to a leading citrus economist. Tom Spreen, University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences professor emeritus, calculated Florida crop output through the 2031-32 season based on various yield and tree replacement assumptions.
Oranges and red grapefruit are Florida’s top-producing varieties.
Under Spreen’s best-case scenario, orange production would stay below the 2020-21 season level of 52.8 million boxes through the 2028-29 season. It would be 2029-30 before output reached 53.2 million boxes, barely surpassing the 2020-21 production level. To achieve the best-case scenario, growers would have to replant lost trees much more aggressively than they have in recent years.
At different yield scenarios using the current 80% rate of replacing lost trees, orange production would dip to 37 million boxes or 47.8 million boxes by 2031-32. Under those scenarios, production would not reach the 2020-21 level at any point over the next 10 years.
Red grapefruit would not reach the 2020-21 production level of …..
Read more about Florida Production Faces Further Decline on the Citrus Industry website.