USA Peanut Congress 2025: Ag Economy Stable, But Challenges Remain
At the recent USA Peanut Congress, agricultural economist Jeffrey Dorfman of North Carolina State University provided an in-depth look at the U.S. economic and agricultural outlook for the coming year.
Dorfman highlighted that supply chains are mostly back to normal, giving the broader economy a solid footing. However, housing remains a concern. He described it as a “two-fold problem” — there aren’t enough existing homes for sale, and new builds are often too expensive. While he expects interest rates to decline gradually through 2025, the pace will be slow.
Agricultural Outlook: Fair to Midland
From a farming perspective, Dorfman’s message was clear: “Fair to Midland.” Commodity prices are expected to remain flat or slightly lower, putting pressure on producers to manage costs effectively. Farmers who can maintain margins or simply hold on may weather the year better than others.
Tariffs pose a risk, especially if trading partners retaliate. Key peanut export markets such as Mexico, China, and the European Union could impose countermeasures if U.S. trade policy shifts.
Input Costs and Labor Struggles
Input costs have stabilized, although not all prices have returned to pre-pandemic levels. That offers a bit of relief on the cost side, with farm profitability expected to remain steady for 2025.
Labor remains a major challenge, particularly regarding the H-2A agricultural labor program. Dorfman noted that labor shortages are already cutting into farm efficiency and profits.
“What farmers made last year is a good benchmark for this year,” Dorfman said. He added that the year could be slightly better for livestock producers, but a bit tougher for crop farmers.
Reporter: Tyron Spearman, Southeast AgNet