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Skepticism Remains Over China Ag Purchases

Dan Economy, Exports/Imports, Industry News Release

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(NAFB) — An Associated Press report says there are still people on both sides of the Pacific Ocean who remain skeptical about the actual amount of farm goods that China committed to buy in the “Phase One” trade agreement with the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the amount will total $40 billion a year. However, President Trump says the total is actually “much more than $50 billion.”

Is it realistic? Even in the best of times, exports to China has never been higher than $26 billion in any year. Beijing may be locked into contracts with other suppliers like Brazil and Argentina it lined up after the trade war broke out with the U.S.

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Chad Hart, an Ag Economist with Iowa State University, says, “History says we’ve never been close to that level. There’s no clear path to getting us there in one year.”

However, the skepticism actually works both ways. A trade specialist at the University of International Business in Beijing says the figure is $40 billion and he wonders if the U.S. can ensure the full supply of products to equal that value.

At this point, farmers that talked to the AP say they’re hopeful but guarded in their expectations. Iowa farmer Jeff Jorgensen says, “At this point, we have to see more details.”

Source: National Association of Farm Broadcasters