USDA March 10th Citrus Crop Forecast Update

Dan Citrus, Florida

ALL ORANGE PRODUCTION UP 2 PERCENT FROM FEBRUARY____

WASHINGTON (March 10, 2011) USDA — The United States all orange forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 8.84 million tons, up 2 percent from the February 1 forecast and 8 percent above the 2009-2010 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 142 million boxes (6.39 million tons), is up 3 percent from the February 1 forecast and 6 percent above last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 70.0 million boxes (3.15 million tons), up 6 percent from February and 2 percent higher than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast,
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at 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. In Florida, fruit size is projected to be below average while droppage is projected to be above average. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from February.

The California Valencia orange forecast is 13.0 million boxes (520,000 tons), down 7 percent from the previous forecast. This brings California’s all orange forecast to 59.5 million boxes (2.38 million tons), down 2 percent from the February 1 forecast. Objective survey measurements taken during January and February indicated that fruit set per tree was down compared with last year, while measured average fruit size was smaller than the previous year.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but up 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.56 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season’s yield of 1.51 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.62 gallons per box, 1 percent lower than last year’s final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.

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